Ten independent data sources. One strategy engine. One goal: detect when the present disagrees with the market.
The system detects when the present disagrees with the market — and acts on it.
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FRED Macro
9 economic indicators from the Federal Reserve — unemployment, CPI, yield curve,
payrolls, GDP, consumer sentiment, manufacturing, jobless claims, Fed balance sheet.
Each maps to specific ETF trades.
FRED
📰
RSS News Scanner
8 feeds (BBC, Al Jazeera, CNBC, MarketWatch, Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance,
Seeking Alpha, Defense News). 16 theme detectors scan 200+ articles per run.
Cross-theme amplification when correlated themes fire together.
🌍
Geopolitical Risk Index
The Caldara-Iacoviello GPR Index, published by Federal Reserve economists.
15,000+ daily observations back to 1985. Z-score based — when risk exceeds
2 standard deviations, that's crisis territory.
GPR
💳
Credit Spreads
ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread — the gap between junk bond yields and
treasuries. Institutional fear gauge: widens before recessions, peaked at 21% in 2008
and 10.8% during COVID. Tracks both absolute level and velocity of change. Daily data
back to 1996.
CREDIT
🔮
Prediction market intelligence from our sibling system
ORALE — tracking
1,300+ auto-refreshed apex wallets on Polymarket and nowcasting macro indicators against Kalshi.
Translates prediction market signals into equity implications.
🎰
Kalshi Markets
CFTC-regulated prediction markets where real money is at stake. Tracks crowd-sourced
probabilities for Fed rate decisions, GDP growth, and CPI inflation. Implied
probability distributions reveal the macro regime the crowd is pricing in —
stagflation, recession, or expansion. 4-hour cache, no auth required.
KALSHI
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Google Trends
Behavioral stress/euphoria detection using search pattern analysis.
Tracks real-world behavior shifts — unemployment filing searches, 401k withdrawal queries,
investment enthusiasm — to detect regime changes before they show up in prices.
Based on behavioral analysis principles.
TRENDS
🌍
GDELT Global News
The GDELT Project monitors news media worldwide in 100+ languages, scoring every article for tone and theme. We download the 15-minute Global Knowledge Graph dumps directly — no API dependency. Tracks economic themes (recession, inflation, trade disputes, military conflict) with spike detection against rolling baselines. 4-hour cache, stdlib-only implementation.
GDELT
🏛️
Geopolitical predictions from
Professor Jiang, who applies structural historical analysis and game theory to predict world events. We auto-pull transcripts as new lectures are published, clean them for accent-related mistranscriptions, and extract structured predictions with market implications. Confidence decays over time — stale predictions fade naturally as new ones arrive.
🎯
Stock Scanner
Individual stock vetting when ETFs aren't precise enough. When macro signals activate a sector, the scanner runs 7 defense stocks through a multi-factor gauntlet: momentum vs SMA, relative strength vs sector ETF, volume confirmation, volatility check, and liquidity floor. Only stocks scoring 65+ out of 100 earn a signal. Confidence capped at 65% — individual stocks never override ETF-level conviction. The scanner follows the macro thesis; it never leads.
SCANNER
🛡️
Risk Management
Every position has hard limits — no exceptions, no human override.
Stop losses are ATR-based: each instrument gets a stop distance calibrated to its own 20-day volatility (2x Average True Range). TIP gets a tight leash (~0.6%), USO gets room to breathe (~5%). Trailing stops replace flat take-profit — the stop ratchets up as positions gain but never moves back down.
ATR-based trailing stops.
Volatility-calibrated per instrument.
Max position size: $5,000. Max 25 concurrent positions.
Max 70% of portfolio invested.
🔒
Profit Ratchet
Once a position is winning, we stop giving it all back. If a trade gains 3%, the trailing
stop floor locks in at +1% profit — guaranteed. At 5%, the floor rises to +2.5%. At 8%,
it locks in +5%. The ATR trailing stop still runs normally, but it can never drop below
the ratchet floor. Whichever is higher wins. Inspired by HACK: up 5%, closed at +1.3%.
With the ratchet, that would have been +2.5% minimum.
RATCHET
Signal Fusion: When multiple sources independently agree → confidence scales up.
RSS detects 57 military conflict articles + GPR at crisis z=2.25 → ITA confidence: 82.5%
Conflict Resolution: Same symbol, opposite directions → net confidence.
RSS says SHORT TLT (inflation) vs GPR says LONG TLT (safety)
Net = too close to call → skip both. No guessing.
Position Sizing: Confidence × max position size, capped by risk rules.
Max $5,000 per position · Max 25 concurrent positions · Max 70% invested
Sector concentration limits · ATR-based trailing stops · Volatility-calibrated per instrument
Cost: All data sources are free (FRED, RSS, GPR, Credit Spreads, Kalshi, Google Trends, GDELT, Predictive History, Stock Scanner via yfinance, Alpaca paper). Runs on a Mac Mini.
Runs on a Mac Mini via launchd every 30 minutes. AI analysis added where data proves it helps.
